Home reserve forecast
Estimate what you may spend replacing major components over the next 1, 5, and 10 years — and how much to set aside each month. The simulation is seeded and reproducible.
Your major components
Your reserve forecast — a recommended monthly amount, year-by-year ranges, and the biggest contributors — will appear here.
Frequently asked questions
How is the forecast calculated?
A seeded Monte Carlo simulation samples each component’s remaining lifespan and replacement cost (with inflation) thousands of times, then reports per-year and cumulative ranges plus a recommended monthly reserve.
Why does the same input always give the same result?
The simulation uses a fixed random seed, so it’s reproducible — the same components and ages always produce the same forecast, which makes it trustworthy and auditable.
How accurate are the costs?
Replacement costs use a coarse national reference baseline today; the result is an explicit range, not a guarantee. Regional cost refinement is planned.
Last updated 2026-06-20 · Methodology version reserve-forecast-1.0.0